Monday, July 31, 2006

July 31st 2006 - MXIM

Dykstra picked the November 22.50 Call for Maxim Integrated Products Inc.
Read the column here.

Option price: $7.20 to $7.50
Stock closing price on Friday July 21st: $29.31
Approximate premium: 69-cents ($29.31 - (Strike $22.50 + $7.50) = $0.69) *

* based on the higher end of the option premium Dykstra recommended

The option traded today at a volume of 282 between the price of $7.30 and $7.60, closing at $7.50 on a day where the stock closed up only 7-cents to $29.38. Assuming Dykstra wasn't waiting for the lowest end of his target buy price, he probably got filled at $7.30. From the column, this pick is based on the company reporting earnings this Friday. A strong earnings could give this a big pop and make for a short win. There could also be a pre-earnings run-up that boost the stock before earnings and of course selling for a profit before that point would probably be best in my opinion.

August 7th Update - As mentioned in Dykstra's column today, MXIM hit the $1000 price target on Friday as the option traded up to $8.30. Another quick one for Dykstra!

Monday, July 24, 2006

July 24th 2006 - TXN

Dykstra picked the October 20 Call for Texas Instruments Inc.
Read the column here.

Option price: $7.30
Stock closing price on Friday July 21st: $27.00
Approximate premium: 30-cents ($27.00 - (Strike $20.00 + $7.30) = $0.30)

TXN reported after hours today and the stock was up 3% after hours. The option did have volume today at the $7.30 price range, so it is a good bet that Dykstra got his purchase in on time since he said he placed the order this morning. The option value closed the end of the day already up $1.00 at $8.30 as the stock rose in regular trading over $1 intra-day. So assuming Dykstra sold his option before the earnings announcement he would have had a quick days work. Otherwise, it looks like he will have no problem cashing in tomorrow (since you can't trade the options after hours). So, with an up market, the sector being strong, and possibly a pre-earnings runup made this a quick trade.

Monday, July 17, 2006

July 17 2006 - AA

Dykstra picked the October 25 Call for AA Alcoa Inc.
Read the column here.

Option price: $6.20
Stock closing price on Friday July 14th: $30.79
Approximate premium: .41-cents ($30.79 - (Strike $25.00 + $6.20) = $0.41)

The option has already dropped on the first day of the recommendation and is trading at $5.90 currently with a bid of $5.70 on high volume for the option. It seems Dykstra is getting a bit of a good following. The stock is down today around 60-cents. Cramer recently gave AA a thumbs down in a lightening round on the 11th of July, although previously had a segment praising the company before earnings on July 5th. The stock is down several points from the positive note from Cramer. So even though the stock is down from the recommended option price, this is of course a longer term strategy and has plenty of time to rebound. The stock can easily go up or down over a dollar on any given day.

September 11th Update - The stock has still not gained $1 from $30.79 and is currently trading well below that with the option trading at $2.75. Likely a losing trade here.

Monday, July 10, 2006

July 10th 2006 - MDT

Dykstra picked the November 42.50 Call for MDT Medtronic Inc.
Read the column here.

Option price: $6.30
Stock closing price on Friday July 7th: $47.59
Approximate premium: $1.21 ($47.59 - (Strike $42.50 + $6.30) = $1.21)

So a higher premium then normal here, since it is above $1. The option had good volume today of 108 trades most likely from followers of Dykstra's picks. The option settled in today at $6.50 at the close but did trade today as low as $6.10 according to Yahoo! Financial so there was some opportunity to get in at or below the recommended price.

Of note, Cramer last gave MDT a thumbs down in the lightening round on May 11th when the stock was trading slightly higher then it is now.

July 17th Update - The stock price is basically unchanged from the price on the day of the recommendation, but the option value has dropped some and is trading currently at $6.00 but with an ask of $6.40 and bid of $6.20. So far no harm done.

July 25th Update - MDT easily passed Dykstra's $1 price increase target of $7.30 today as the MDT November 42.50 option closed at $8.00. The stock traded up nearly 2 dollars today alone. Another good pick from Dykstra for sure.