Monday, June 26, 2006

June 26th 2006 - NWL

Dykstra picked the December 20 Call for NWL Newell Rubbermaid Inc.
Read the column here.

Option price: $6.50 (or better)
Stock closing price: $26.07
Approximate premium: .43-cents ($26.07 - (Strike $20 + $6.50 = $26.50) = .43-cents)

Dykstra mentions the closing price on Friday of $26.14. The stock closed down today at $26.07 and the option price hit the target of $6.50 with volume of 39 options. The current bid is $6.40 with the current ask at $6.60, so the game is on already with this one.

June 29th Update - NWL closed at $25.80 today, up .33-cents. The option ask price is $6.20 with a bid of $6.00.

July 17th Update - In today's column Dykstra recommended a double down on NWL since the option value has lost around $2 to lower the average cost down from $6.50. Currently the option is trading at $5.00 with a bid of $4.80. Cramer is also bullish on the stock, and I believe he owns it for his charitable trust.

July 17th Update - NWL reported reported strong earnings today and the stock price was well up. The option traded as high as $7.41 today, but has since fallen back down to $6.80. Based on Dykstra's original purchase price we are still off 9-cents from hitting the target, but based on his recommended double down he has hit his target today. Now I am inclined to hold off saying he has hit his target because I'm sure not everyone has another $4000 to use to double down on a losing position so I would like to see the option go to $7.50. Either way though, Dykstra did make a good call here and was brave enough to stick to his guns and suggest the double down.

Monday, June 19, 2006

June 19th 2006 - GD

Dykstra picked the November 55 Call for GD General Dynamics Corp.
Read the column here.

Option price: $11.50 (or better)
Stock closing price: $66.12
Approximate premium: .38-cents (calculation: 66.12 - (55.00 + 11.50) = .38)

Dykstra notes that this particular option hasn't traded in a while and he is going to let it come in to his $11.50 price to purchase and not chase it. The current bid is $11.70 with an ask of $12.00 so it will have to come down a bit to reach the target buy price.

June 20th update - The option price hit $11.50 today as Dykstra was looking for. Exactly 10 contracts were sold it appears, so maybe his order got filled today. The ask price for the option has already gone back up to $11.70. The stock was down today and closed only slightly off its low for the day. So, the game is on here with this pick. Dykstra would be looking for an increase in price from the $65.21 level to anywhere above $66.21 to make his $1000.

June 21st Update - GD closed up $0.31 today and the option also reflects that with the last trade at $11.80, with the current ask at $11.90, but only $11.70 at the bid. So far so good for Dykstra.

June 26th Update - As Dykstra mentioned in his column today, the GD option closed at $12.10 on Friday the 23rd, only .40-cents from the target. Today however, the stock was down 0.82-cents and the option value fell to $11.00 with a bid of $10.80 and ask of $11.10. A pretty big drop in the option value compared to the stock price drop but only on volume of 13.

June 29th Update - GD closed up $1.27 today at $65.33. The option Ask price is $11.60 with a bid of $11.40. It only traded as high as $11.00 today though. Even though the stock is down 0.79-cents from the time the option was purchased, the ask price for the option high. The upbeat market today may be the reason for that.

July 6th Update - GD surpassed the $12.50 option price today easily and hit a high of $13.30 when the stock rose over $2 today. Another successful pick from Dykstra!

Sunday, June 18, 2006

Summary of Picks

Outcome of Dykstra's 34 call option picks:

26 increased over $1 so if 10 contracts were purchased, the $1000 gain could have been made.

1 pick, INTC (picked December 5th 2005) only went up .20-cents in share price from the date of the recommendation and did not meet the intended target.

2 picks, INTC (picked January 23rd 2006) and AMGN (picked April 10th 2006) have had their share prices drop below the price the day Dykstra recommended them. Both expire in July.

5 picks, INTC (picked February 6th 2006 and March 20th 2006), WTR (picked May 8th 2006), HW (picked June 5th 2006), and DOW (picked June 12th 2006) have not reached $1.00 gains in share price yet but have had their share prices go up since the pick was made, and all still have time. Of note, the INTC March 20th pick, Dyksta did sell the next day after the stock went up .60-cents, so he appears to have taken profits before his usual target.

June 12th 2006 - DOW

Dykstra picked the December 30 Call for DOW Dow Chemical Co.

Option price: $8.80
Stock price: $38.23
Approximate premium: .57-cents

The stock traded to a high of $38.84 on July 3rd, for a max gain of $1.31

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: Yes (July 3rd)
Maximum gain potential as of June 29th is: $1310

June 21st Update - The stock has traded back to $38.23 where Dykstra picked it. The option however is up to $8.90 at the last trade but with an ask of $8.70 and bid of $8.50. Still lots of time and basically treading water.

June 26th Update - DOW closed up .42-cents today and the option value rose to $8.80 with an ask of $8.90. Still at break-even.

June 29th Update - DOW closed up .98-cents today to close at $38.73 with a high of $38.84. The option last traded at $9.30 with an ask of $9.30 and bid of $9.20. It traded as high as $9.40 today. That high represents an option value max gain to date of $600.

July 3rd Update - DOW closed up 0.44-cents today to close at $39.47 with a high of $39.54. The option hit a high of $10.10 today or $1.30 above the original buy price. Dykstra most likely sold today to get his profit of $1000.

June 5th 2006 - HW

Dykstra picked the August 22.50 Call for HW Headwaters Inc.

Option price: $4.60
Stock price: $26.32
Approximate premium: .78-cents

The stock traded to a high of $26.86 on June 6th 2006, a gain of $0.54.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: No, not yet
Maximum gain potential as of June 16 is: $540

June 21st Update - Stock was up $1.12 today, but still below the price of $26.32 where the option was recommended. The last trade and bid are at $3.90 and the ask is at $4.10.

June 26th Update - HW closed up .60-cents today at $25.47. The option last traded at $3.70 with a bid of $3.80 and ask of $4.00. Still well below the purchase price of $4.60. So the stock goes up .60-cents but the option only .10-cents? Not a great sign, possibly due to some new debt the company is looking to
help pay down a senior secured credit facility? No mention of an average down yet from Dykstra that I have seen.

June 29th Update - HW closed up $1.27 to close at $25.30 (the high for the day). The option last traded at $3.50 with an ask of $3.60 and bid of $3.50. The stock is down about a dollar from the recommendation price as is the option price.

July 17th Update - HW is getting hammered and is trading at $21.63, well down from when the option was recommended. The option is trading at $1.25, down from $4.60 and is now out of the money. About 1 month to go, but a lot of ground to make up in a shaky market.

August 18th Update - The option expired today at $0.05 after the stock closed at $22.31. The option never gained $1 in value to get the desired gain.

May 23rd 2006 - MSFT

Dykstra picked the October 20 Call for MSFT Microsoft Corp.

Option price: $3.50
Stock price: $22.79
Approximate premium: .71-cents

The stock traded to a high of $23.92 on May 25th 2006, a gain of $1.13.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $1130

May 8th 2006 - WTR

Dykstra picked the September 20 Call for WTR Aqua America Inc.

Option price: $3.80
Stock price: $23.23
Approximate premium: .57-cents

The stock traded to a high of $23.62 on June 1st 2006, a gain of $0.39.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: No, not yet.
Maximum gain potential as of June 16th is: $390

June 21st Update - Stock traded to $22.05 today so still down. The option last traded at $2.40 with the same bid. The current ask is $2.95.

June 26th Update - WTR traded up .25-cents today to close at $22.42, still down from where it was when the option was recommended. The option last traded at $3.00 with a bid of $2.70 and ask of $3.20.

July 17th Update - WTR is currently trading at $21.72, down from $23.23 when it was recommended. The option is trading at $2.30 with an ask of $2.50 and bid of $2.05.

September 11th Update - On Septemeber 1st the stock hit a high of $23.93, but still below the $1 gain required. The option is currently trading at $2.15 so likely not a complete loss.

April 25th 2006 - HW

Dykstra picked the August 25 Call for HW Headwaters Inc.

Option price: $10.00
Stock price: $34.34
Approximate premium: .66-cents

The stock traded to a high of $36.17 on May 9th 2006, a gain of $1.83.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $1830

April 17th 2006 - ABT

Dykstra picked the August 35 Call for ABT Abbott Laboratories

Option price: $6.90
Stock price: $41.50
Approximate premium: .40-cents

The stock traded to a high of $43.35 on June 2nd 2006, a gain of $1.85.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $1850

April 10th 2006 - AMGN

Dykstra picked the July 60 Call for AMGN Amgen Inc.

Option price: $12.00
Stock price: $71.53
Approximate premium: .47-cents

The stock traded to a high of $71.20 on April 18th 2006, a loss of $0.33.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: No, not yet.
Minimum loss potential: $330
Maximum loss potential: $71.53 subtract the Lowest price $65.71 (May 3rd) = $5.82 per share or $5820.

July 10th update - Sorta forgot about this one. Doesn't look to good. The stock is trading around $66 and the option around $7, well down from the $12.50 the options were purchased at with the July expiry not far away.

July 23 Update - The option expired on July 21st and the stock price closed at $66.15, well below the price at the time of the option purchase. The option value never gained $1.00 to make the $1000 target.

April 3rd 2006 - DOW

Dykstra picked the September 35 Call for DOW Dow Chemical Co.

Option price: $6.50
Stock price: $40.64
Approximate premium: .86-cents

The stock traded to a high of $43.10 on May 8th 2006, a gain of $2.46.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $2460

March 27th 2006 - FPL

Dykstra picked the September 35 Call for FPL FPL Group Inc.

Option price: $5.80
Stock price: $40.68
Approximate premium: .12-cents

The stock traded to a high of $41.97 on June 9th 2006, a gain of $1.29.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $1290

Dykstra suggested buying more when the contracts went down to $4.70.

March 20th 2006 - INTC

Dykstra picked the October 17.50 Call for INTC Intel Corp.

Option price: $2.90
Stock price: $19.54
Approximate premium: .86-cents

The stock traded to a high of $20.32 on March 21st 2006, a gain of $0.78

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: No
Maximum gain potential: $780

Dykstra sold the next day on a .60-cent gain per share.

July 23 Update - The option expired on July 21st and the stock price closed at $17.15, well below the price at the time of the option purchase. The option value never gained $1.00 to make the $1000 target.

Thursday, June 08, 2006

March 6th 2006 - BUD

Dykstra picked the September 35 Call for BUD Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc.

Option price: $7.00
Stock price: $41.22
Approximate premium: .78-cents

The stock traded to a high of $47.00 on May 22nd 2006, a gain of $5.78.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $5780

February 27th 2006 - LLY

Dykstra picked the October 45 Call for LLY Eli Lilly & Co.

Option price: $11.50
Stock price: $56.02
Approximate premium: .48-cents

The stock traded to a high of $59.24 on March 24th 2006, a gain of $3.22.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $3220

February 21st 2006 - CHKP

Dykstra picked the July 12.50 Call for CHKP Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.

Option price: $8.00
Stock price: $20.44
Approximate premium: .06-cents

The stock traded to a high of $22.24 on February 27th 2006, a gain of $1.80.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $1800

February 13th 2006 - NBR

Dykstra picked the June 30 Call for NBR Nabors Industries Ltd. ***There was a 2:1 stock split so it was actually the June 60 Call so all numbers have been cut in half here.

Option price: $7.25
Stock price: $36.55
Approximate premium: .70-cents

The stock dropped and Dykstra recommended to average down when the stock was at $33.55 on February 21st 2006.

Option price: $5.25
Stock price: $33.55
Approximate premium: $1.70

The stock traded to a high of $40.71 on May 11th 2006, a gain of $7.16 when buying on the dip and $4.16 if bought when the stock was at $36.55.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes - for both recommendations
Maximum gain potential: $4160 -> $7160

February 6th 2006 - INTC

Dykstra picked the July 17.50 Call for INTC Intel Corp.

Option price: $3.90
Stock price: $20.85
Approximate premium: .55-cents

The stock traded to a high of $21.47 on February 14th 2006, a gain of $0.62

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: No
Maximum gain potential: $620

July 23 Update - The option expired on July 21st and the stock price closed at $17.15, well below the price at the time of the option purchase. The option value never gained $1.00 to make the $1000 target.

February 6th 2006 - CVX

Dykstra picked the June 50 Call for CVX Chevron Corp.

Option price: $8.60
Stock price: $58.00
Approximate premium: .60-cents

The stock traded to a high of $63.65 on May 11th 2006, a gain of $5.65.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $5650

January 30th 2006 - DELL

Dykstra picked the May 22.50 Call for DELL Dell Inc.

Option price: $7.20
Stock price: $29.30
Approximate premium: .40-cents

The stock traded to a high of $32.24 on February 15th 2006, a gain of $2.94.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $2940

January 23rd 2006 - DOW

Dykstra picked the June 35 Call for DOW Dow Chemical Co.

Option price: $7.40
Stock price: $42.00
Approximate premium: .40-cents

The stock traded to a high of $43.95.
Dykstra sold his call for $9.30

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $1950

January 23rd 2006 - KO

Dykstra picked the May 35 Call for KO Coca-Cola Co.

Option price: $5.50
Stock price: $40.33
Approximate premium: .17-cents

The stock traded to a high of $44.76 on May 26th 2006, a gain of $4.43.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $4430

January 23rd 2006 - VRSN

Dykstra picked the March 17.50 Call for VRSN VeriSign Inc.

Option price: $4.50
Stock price: $21.95
Approximate premium: .05-cents

The stock traded to a high of $25.45 on April 20th 2006, a gain of $3.50.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $3500

January 23rd 2006 - INTC

Dykstra picked the July 17.50 Call for INTC Intel Corp.

Option price: $4.90
Stock price: $21.93
Approximate premium: .47-cents

The stock has only traded below $21.93 since the recomendation.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: No

January 23rd 2006 - GE

Dykstra picked the June 30 Call for GE General Electric Co.

Option price: $4.00
Stock price: $33.67
Approximate premium: .33-cents

The stock traded to a high of $35.24 on May 8th 2006, a gain of $1.57.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $1570

January 17th 2006 - DOW

Dykstra picked the June 35 Call for DOW Dow Chemical Co.

Option price: $8.70
Stock price: $43.05
Approximate premium: .65-cents

The stock traded to a high of $44.30 on February 17th 2006, a gain of $1.25.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $1250

January 10th 2006 - WMT

Dykstra picked the June 40 Call for WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

Option price: $6.70
Stock price: $45.88
Approximate premium: .82-cents

The stock traded to a high of $50.00 on May 26th 2006, a gain of $4.12.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $4120

December 27th 2005 - SCHL

Dykstra picked the June 25 Call for SCHL Scholastic Corp.

Option price: $4.80
Stock price: $29.09
Approximate premium: .71-cents

The stock traded to a high of $30.48 on January 27th 2006, a gain of $1.39.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $1390

December 19th 2005 - LYO

Dykstra picked the June 20 Call for LYO Lyondell Chemical Co.

Option price: $4.80
Stock price: $23.76
Approximate premium: $1.04

The stock traded to a high of $26.66 on May 2nd 2006, a gain of $2.90.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $2900

December 12th 2005 - VZ

Dykstra picked the April 25 Call for VZ Verizon Communications Inc.

Option price: $6.30
Stock price: $31.08
Approximate premium: .22-cents

The stock traded to a high of $35.17 on March 27th 2006, a gain of $4.09.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $4090

December 5th 2005 - MSFT

Dykstra picked the April 20 Call for MSFT Microsoft Corp.

Option price: $8.10
Stock price: $28.02
Approximate premium: .08-cents

The stock traded to a high of $28.22 on March 22nd 2006, a gain of $0.20.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: no
Maximum gain potential: $200

December 5th 2005 - CE

Dykstra picked the March 15 Call for CE Celanese Corp.

Option price: $2.40
Stock price: $17.20
Approximate premium: .20-cents

The stock traded to a high of $22.00 on February 16 2006, a gain of $4.80.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $4800

November 25th 2005 - SYMC

Dykstra picked the April 15 Call for SYMC Symantec Corp.

Option price: $3.40
Stock price: $17.64
Approximate premium: .76-cents

The stock traded to a high of $19.94 on January 11th 2006, a gain of $2.30.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $2300

November 21st 2005 - FTO

Dykstra picked the April 22.50 Call for FTO Frontier Oil Corp.

Option price: $12.70
Stock price: $34.28
Approximate premium: .92-cents

The stock traded to a high of $63.72 on April 5th 2006, a gain of $29.44.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $29,440

November 21st 2005 - DELL

Dykstra picked the February 25 Call for DELL Dell Inc.

Option price: $5.40
Stock price: $29.85
Approximate premium: .55-cents

The stock traded to a high of $33.22 on December 13th 2005, a gain of $3.37.

If 10 contracts were purchased:
Would the minimum of $1000 been made: yes
Maximum gain potential: $3370

November 7th 2005 - IP

Dykstra picked the April 22.50 Call for IP International Paper Co.

Option price: $7.30
Stock price: $29.60
Approximate premium: .20-cents

Dykstra sold his options for $8.40 for a gain of $1100.
The stock traded to a high of $37.72 on April 21st 2006 (expiration day), a gain of $7.91.